Mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with tenofovir or entecavir: A multinational study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The benefits of entecavir (ETV) versus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in reducing the development of chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma remain controversial. Whether mortality rates differ between patients with CHB treated with ETV and those treated with TDF is unclear. METHODS: A total of 2542 patients with CHB treated with either ETV or TDF were recruited from a multinational cohort. A 1:1 propensity score matching was performed to balance the differences in baseline characteristics between the two patient groups. We aimed to compare the all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality between patients receiving ETV and those receiving TDF. RESULTS: The annual incidence of all-cause mortality in the entire cohort was 1.0/100 person-years (follow-up, 15 757.5 person-years). Patients who received TDF were younger and had a higher body mass index, platelet count, hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid levels, and proportion of hepatitis B e-antigen seropositivity than those who received ETV. The factors associated with all-cause mortality were fibrosis-4 index > 6.5 (hazard ratio [HR]/confidence interval [CI]: 3.13/2.15-4.54, P < 0.001), age per year increase (HR/CI: 1.05/1.04-1.07, P < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level per U/L increase (HR/CI: 0.997/0.996-0.999, P = 0.003), and γ-glutamyl transferase level per U/L increase (HR/CI: 1.002/1.001-1.003, P < 0.001). No significant difference in all-cause mortality was observed between the ETV and TDF groups (log-rank test, P = 0.69). After propensity score matching, no significant differences in all-cause, liver-related, or non-liver-related mortality were observed between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term outcomes of all-cause mortality and liver-related and non-liver-related mortality did not differ between patients treated with ETV and those receiving TDF.

Reduced Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Long-Term Besifovir Therapy.

No information is available regarding the influence of besifovir (BSV), a new nucleotide analogue, on the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study evaluated the reduced risk of HCC in patients undergoing BSV treatment. A total of 188 patients with CHB were treated with BSV for up to 8 years. We prospectively assessed the incidence of HCC compared with the risk from prediction models. During the follow-up, 5 patients developed HCC: 1 of 139 patients with non-cirrhotic CHB, and 4 of 49 patients with liver cirrhosis. We compared the HCC incidence in non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic patients with the predicted number derived from the REACH-B (risk estimation for HCC in CHB) model and GAG-HCC (guide with age, gender, HBV DNA, core promotor mutation, and cirrhosis) model, respectively. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was 0.128 (p = 0.039) at 7 years in non-cirrhotic CHB patients, and the SIR was 0.371 (p = 0.047) at 7.5 years in cirrhotic patients, suggesting a significantly decreased HCC incidence in both groups. HCC prediction was available for BSV-treated patients using existing models. In conclusion, BSV decreased the risk of HCC in patients with CHB, and prediction models were applicable. Clinical trial registry website and trial number: ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01937806.

Pretreatment gamma-glutamyl transferase predicts mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogs.

Elevated serum gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) levels are associated with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma. However, their role in predicting mortality in patients with CHB treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogs (NAs) remains elusive. Altogether, 2843 patients with CHB treated with NAs were recruited from a multinational cohort. Serum GGT levels before and 6 months (Month-6) after initiating NAs were measured to explore their association with all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality. The annual incidence of all-cause mortality was 0.9/100 person-years over a follow-up period of 17,436.3 person-years. Compared with patients who survived, those who died had a significantly higher pretreatment (89.3 vs. 67.4 U/L, p = 0.002) and Month-6-GGT levels (62.1 vs. 38.4 U/L, p < 0.001). The factors associated with all-cause mortality included cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR]/95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.66/1.92-3.70, p < 0.001), pretreatment GGT levels (HR/CI: 1.004/1.003-1.006, p < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level (HR/CI: 0.996/0.994-0.998, p = 0.001), and age (HR/CI: 1.06/1.04-1.07, p < 0.001). Regarding liver-related mortality, the independent factors included cirrhosis (HR/CI: 4.36/2.79-6.89, p < 0.001), pretreatment GGT levels (HR/CI: 1.006/1.004-1.008, p < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase level (HR/CI: 0.993/0.990-0.997, p = 0.001), age (HR/CI: 1.03/1.01-1.05, p < 0.001), and fatty liver disease (HR/CI: 0.30/0.15-0.59, p = 0.001). Pretreatment GGT levels were also independently predictive of non-liver-related mortality (HR/CI: 1.003/1.000-1.005, p = 0.03). The results remained consistent after excluding the patients with a history of alcohol use. A dose-dependent manner of <25, 25-75, and >75 percentile of pretreatment GGT levels was observed with respect to the all-cause mortality (trend p < 0.001). Pretreatment serum GGT levels predicted all-cause, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality in patients with CHB treated with NAs.

Sex Differences in Treatment Response to Nucleos(t)ide Therapy in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Multicenter Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear if there may be sex differences in response to nucleos(t)ide analogs including virologic response (VR), biochemical response (BR), complete response (CR), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence among hepatitis B patients. We compared nucleos(t)ide analog treatment outcomes by sex. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 3388 treatment-naïve adult hepatitis B patients (1250 female, 2138 male) from the Real-World Evidence from the Global Alliance for the Study of Hepatitis B Virus consortium who initiated therapy with either entecavir or tenofovir from 22 sites (Argentina, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the United States). We used propensity-score matching to balance background characteristics of the male and female groups and competing-risks analysis to estimate the incidence and subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) of VR, BR, CR, and HCC. RESULTS: Females (vs males) were older (52.0 vs 48.6 y); less likely to be overweight/obese (49.3% vs 65.7%), diabetic (9.9% vs 13.1%), or cirrhotic (27.9% vs 33.0%); and had a lower HBV DNA level (5.9 vs 6.0 log10 IU/mL) and alanine aminotransferase level (91 vs 102 IU/L) (all P < .01). However, after propensity-score matching, relevant background characteristics were balanced between the 2 groups. Females (vs males) had similar 5-year cumulative VR (91.3% vs 90.3%; P = .40) and HCC incidence rates (5.1% vs 4.4%; P = .64), but lower BR (84.0% vs 90.9%; P < .001) and CR (78.8% vs 83.4%; P = .016). Males were more likely to achieve BR (SHR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.17-1.46; P < .001) and CR (SHR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.03-1.31; P = .016), but VR and HCC risks were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Sex differences exist for treatment outcomes among hepatitis B patients. Male sex was associated with a 16% higher likelihood of clinical remission and a 31% higher likelihood of biochemical response than females, while virologic response and HCC incidence were similar between the 2 groups.

Human gut microbiota from hepatitis B virus-infected individuals is associated with reduced triglyceride level in mice: faecal transplantation study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is associated with a reduced risk of dyslipidaemia. Using a human faecal microbiota transplantation (FMT), we compared changes in gut microbiota and lipid profiles in mice transplanted with human faeces from HBV-infected and non-infected individuals. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 19 mice received human FMT from four HBV-infected individuals and were categorised into the HBV-positive mice group, while 20 mice received FMT from four HBV-non-infected individuals into the HBV-negative one. In the analysis of gut microbiota in FMT mice, we observed a robust increase in alpha diversity and abundance of Akkermansia muciniphila in HBV-positive mice, compared to that in HBV-negative. Functional inference analysis revealed that the pathways involved in glycerolipid metabolism were more enriched in HBV-positive mice. At 5 weeks of FMT, the reduced triglyceride (TG) level was predominantly observed in HBV-positive mice. CONCLUSIONS: Altered gut microbiota accompanied by HBV infection was associated with a robust increase in alpha diversity and butyrate producers, which resulted in a reduced level of TG at 5 weeks post-FMT. This indicates that the reduced risk of dyslipidaemia in chronic HBV infection may be due to the altered gut microbiota accompanied by HBV infection.

Personalized Antiviral Drug Selection in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Using a Machine Learning Model: A Multinational Study.

INTRODUCTION: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is reportedly superior or at least comparable to entecavir (ETV) for the prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B; however, it has distinct long-term renal and bone toxicities. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model (designated as Prediction of Liver cancer using Artificial intelligence-driven model for Network-antiviral Selection for hepatitis B [PLAN-S]) to predict an individualized risk of HCC during ETV or TDF therapy. METHODS: This multinational study included 13,970 patients with chronic hepatitis B. The derivation (n = 6,790), Korean validation (n = 4,543), and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts (n = 2,637) were established. Patients were classified as the TDF-superior group when a PLAN-S-predicted HCC risk under ETV treatment is greater than under TDF treatment, and the others were defined as the TDF-nonsuperior group. RESULTS: The PLAN-S model was derived using 8 variables and generated a c-index between 0.67 and 0.78 for each cohort. The TDF-superior group included a higher proportion of male patients and patients with cirrhosis than the TDF-nonsuperior group. In the derivation, Korean validation, and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts, 65.3%, 63.5%, and 76.4% of patients were classified as the TDF-superior group, respectively. In the TDF-superior group of each cohort, TDF was associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC than ETV (hazard ratio = 0.60-0.73, all P < 0.05). In the TDF-nonsuperior group, however, there was no significant difference between the 2 drugs (hazard ratio = 1.16-1.29, all P > 0.1). DISCUSSION: Considering the individual HCC risk predicted by PLAN-S and the potential TDF-related toxicities, TDF and ETV treatment may be recommended for the TDF-superior and TDF-nonsuperior groups, respectively.

Isolated Hepatitis B Core Antibody Positivity and Long-Term Liver-Related Mortality in Korea: A Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Whether isolated hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) positivity is a risk factor for long-term liver-related outcomes in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-endemic areas remains unclear. We aimed to investigate liver-related and liver cancer mortality of isolated anti-HBc positivity in Korean adults. METHODS: A cohort study comprised 609,299 Korean adults who underwent hepatitis B serologic markers, as a part of health examination. Liver-related and liver cancer mortality were determined using the National Death Records. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.0 years (interquartile range, 5.5-13.7 years), 554 liver-related deaths were identified (liver-related mortality, 9.6 cases per 10 5 person-years). The prevalence of isolated anti-HBc positivity was 3.8% (n = 23,399) and was age-dependent. After adjustment for age, sex, and other confounders, hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for liver-related mortality in isolated anti-HBc-positive and hepatitis B surface antigen-positive subjects compared with HBV-unexposed subjects were 1.69 (1.22-2.33) and 27.02 (21.45-34.04), respectively. These associations were pronounced in the analyses using liver cancer mortality as an outcome. Among isolated anti-HBc-positive patients, the risks of liver-related and liver cancer mortality were significantly higher in those with high fibrosis-4 scores compared with patients unexposed to HBV with the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 15.59 (9.21-26.37) and 72.66 (36.96-142.86), respectively. DISCUSSION: In this cohort of Korean adults, isolated anti-HBc positivity was associated with an increased risk of liver-related and liver cancer mortality, especially when accompanied by a high fibrosis score. Isolated anti-HBc positivity may be an independent risk factor for liver-related outcomes, especially in high-endemic areas.

The effects of moderate alcohol consumption on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is accepted as a counterpart to alcohol-related liver disease because it is defined as hepatic steatosis without excessive use of alcohol. However, the definition of moderate alcohol consumption, as well as whether moderate alcohol consumption is beneficial or detrimental, remains controversial. In this review, the findings of clinical studies to date with high-quality evidence regarding the effects of moderate alcohol consumption in NAFLD patients were compared and summarized.

Non-Inferior Efficacy of Tenofovir Disoproxil to Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate in Virologically Suppressed Chronic Hepatitis B Patients.

Purpose: Tenofovir disoproxil (TD), modified from tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), was developed as a salt-free formulation, removing fumarate to improve the ease of oral intake by reducing the tablet's size. We evaluated the maintenance of antiviral effects and overall safety profile of TD 245 mg after switching from TDF 300 mg in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Patients and Methods: CHB patients with HBV-DNA <69 IU/mL after ≥24 weeks of TDF therapy were enrolled. The primary efficacy endpoint was the HBV-DNA suppression rate (HBV-DNA <69 IU/mL) at week 48; We evaluated the non-inferiority (10% margin) of TD to TDF in terms of efficacy. Safety was assessed based on adverse events (AEs), laboratory tests, bone mineral density, and renal function abnormalities. Results: Overall, 189 subjects were randomized in a 2:1 ratio, and 117 and 66 subjects in the TD and TDF groups, respectively, completed the study. In the per-protocol set, the HBV-DNA suppression rate at week 48 was 99.1% and 100% in the TD and TDF groups, respectively. The lower limit of the 97.5% one-sided confidence interval for the intergroup difference in HBV-DNA suppression rate was -2.8%, which was greater than the prespecified margin of non-inferiority. The changes in creatinine clearance from baseline to week 48 was significantly less in the TD group and in the TDF group; -0.8 ± 9.8 versus -2.4 ± 12.8 mL/min, respectively (P=0.017). Conclusion: TD was non-inferior to TDF for maintaining viral suppression in CHB patients, showing the less decline of renal function.

Effectiveness of entecavir vs tenofovir disoproxil fumarate for functional cure of chronic hepatitis B in an international cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Both entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) are first-line therapies for chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but their comparative effectiveness with regards to hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance remains unclear. METHODS: This international multicenter cohort study enrolled 7697 treatment-naïve CHB patients (median age 50 years; male 66.75%) initiated on either ETV (n = 5430) or TDF (n = 2267) without baseline malignancy or immunosuppression from 23 centers across 10 countries or regions. Patients were observed for HBsAg seroclearance until death, loss to follow-up, or treatment discontinuation or switching. The incidences of HBsAg seroclearance were adjusted for competing mortality and compared between ETV and TDF cohorts with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and also by multivariable regression analysis. RESULTS: The study population was followed up for a median duration of 56.1 months with 36,929 11 person-years of observation. HBsAg seroclearance occurred in 70 ETV-treated and 21 TDF-treated patients, yielding 8-year cumulative incidence of 1.69% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-2.17) for ETV and 1.34% (95% CI 0.85-2.10%), for TDF (p = 0.58). In the IPTW analysis with the two study cohorts more balanced in background covariates, the age-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of TDF versus ETV for HBsAg seroclearance was 0.91 (95% CI 0.50-1.64; p = 0.75). Furthermore, there was no significant difference between the two medications in the multivariable competing risk regression model (adjusted sub-distributional HR 0.92 for TDF vs. ETV; 95% CI 0.56-1.53; p = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: ETV and TDF did not differ significantly in the incidence of HBsAg seroclearance, which rarely occurred with either regimen.

Risk of liver fibrosis in patients with prediabetes and diabetes mellitus.

The aim of this study was to assess the risk of liver fibrosis in those with no glucose intolerance, prediabetes, or diabetes. A cross-sectional study was conducted based on a cohort from a health examination program which included a magnetic resonance elastography (MRE). Participants were classified into three groups according to glucose tolerance: no glucose intolerance, prediabetes, and diabetes mellitus. Liver fibrosis was evaluated by liver stiffness measurement (LSM) value using two-dimensional real-time MRE. The risk of significant liver fibrosis was compared among three groups. A total of 2,090 subjects were included: no glucose intolerance (n = 889); prediabetes (n = 985); and diabetes (n = 216). Mean values of LSM in those with no glucose intolerance, prediabetes, and diabetes were 2.37 ± 0.43 kPa, 2.41 ± 0.34 kPa, and 2.65 ± 0.70 kPa, respectively (p<0.001). Proportions of significant fibrosis (LSM ≥2.97 kPa) in no glucose intolerance, prediabetes, and diabetes groups were 3.1%, 4.4%, and 16.7%, respectively (p<0.001). Compared with those with no glucose intolerance, those with diabetes had higher risk of significant fibrosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 3.02, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.57-5.81, p<0.001). However, there was no difference between prediabetes and no glucose intolerance (aOR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.59-1.86, p = 0.876). A subgroup analysis also showed that prediabetes, unlike diabetes, was not associated with significant fibrosis in subjects with or without liver disease. Diabetes, but not prediabetes, is a risk factor for significant liver fibrosis. This finding is consistent regarldess of the pressence of liver disease.

Effect of L-carnitine on quality of life in covert hepatic encephalopathy: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: L-carnitine is potentially beneficial in patients with hepatic encephalopathy (HE). We aimed to evaluate the impact of L-carnitine on the quality of life and liver function in patients with liver cirrhosis and covert HE. METHODS: We conducted an investigator-initiated, prospective, multi-center, double- blind, randomized phase III trial in patients with covert HE. A total of 150 patients were randomized 1:1 to L-carnitine (2 g/day) or placebo for 24 weeks. Changes in quality of life and liver function were assessed at 6 months. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), the 36-Item Short Form Survey (SF-36), the psychometric hepatic encephalopathy score (PHES), and the Stroop Test were evaluated in all patients. RESULTS: The total SF-36 score significantly improved in the L-carnitine group after 24 weeks (difference: median, 2; interquartile range, 0 to 11; p < 0.001); however, these values were comparable between the two groups. Furthermore, there was a significant ordinal improvement in PHES scores among patients with minimal HE who were in the L-carnitine group (p = 0.007). Changes in the total carnitine level also positively correlated with improvements in the Stroop test in the L-carnitine group (color test, r = 0.3; word test, r = 0.4; inhibition test, r = 0.5; inhibition/switching test, r = 0.3; all p < 0.05). Nevertheless, the MELD scores at week 24 did not differ between the groups. CONCLUSION: Twenty-four weeks of L-carnitine supplementation was safe but ineffective in improving quality of life and liver function.

A Multi-Center, Double-Blind Randomized Controlled Phase III Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Antiviral Activity and Safety of DA-2802 (Tenofovir Disoproxil Orotate) and Viread (Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate) in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients.

BACKGROUND: Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF, Viread®) had been used as a standard treatment option of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of DA-2802 (tenofovir disoproxil orotate) compared to TDF. METHODS: The present study was a double blind randomized controlled trial. Patients with CHB were recruited from 25 hospitals in Korea and given DA-2802 at a dose of 319 mg once daily or Viread® at a dose of 300 mg once daily for 48 weeks from March 2017 to January 2019. Change in hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA level at week 48 after dosing compared to baseline was the primary efficacy endpoint. Secondary efficacy endpoints were proportions of subjects with undetectable HBV DNA, those with normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, and those with loss of hepatitis B envelop antigen (HBeAg), those with loss of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Adverse events (AEs) were also investigated. RESULTS: A total of 122 patients (DA-2802 group: n = 61, Viread® group: n = 61) were used as full analysis set for efficacy analysis. Mean age, proportion of males, laboratory results and virologic characteristics were not different between the two groups. The change in HBV DNA level at week 48 from baseline was -5.13 ± 1.40 in the DA-2802 group and -4.97 ± 1.40 log10 copies/mL in the Viread® group. The analysis of primary endpoint using the nonparametric analysis of covariance showed statistically significant results (P < 0.001), which confirmed non-inferiority of DA-2802 to Viread® by a prespecified noninferiority margin of 1. The proportion of undetectable HBV DNA was 78.7% in the DA-2802 group and 75.4% in the Viread® group (P = 0.698). The proportion of subjects who had normal ALT levels was 75.4% in the DA-2802 group and 73.3% in the Viread® group (P = 0.795). The proportion of those with HBeAg loss was 8.1% in the DA-2802 group and 10.8% in the Viread® group (P = 1.000). No subject showed HBsAg loss. The frequency of AEs during treatment was similar between the two groups. Most AEs were mild to moderate in severity. CONCLUSION: DA-2802 is considered an effective and safe treatment for patients with CHB. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02967939.

Longitudinal renal changes in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir versus TDF: a REAL-B study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to compare the longitudinal changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with entecavir (ETV) vs. tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). METHODS: This is a retrospective study of 6189 adult treatment-naïve CHB patients initiated therapy with TDF (n = 2482) or ETV (n = 3707) at 25 international centers using multivariable generalized linear modeling (GLM) to determine mean eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) and Kaplan-Meier method to estimate incidence of renal impairment (≥ 1 chronic kidney disease [CKD] stage worsening). We also examined above renal changes in matched ETV and TDF patients (via propensity score matching [PSM] on age, sex, diabetes mellitus [DM], hypertension [HTN], cirrhosis, baseline eGFR, and follow-up duration). RESULTS: In the overall cohort (mean age 49.7 years, 66.2% male), the baseline eGFR was higher for TDF vs. ETV group (75.9 vs. 74.0, p = 0.009). PSM yielded 1871 pairs of ETV or TDF patients with baseline eGFR ≥ 60 and 520 pairs for the eGFR < 60 group. GLM analysis of the overall (unmatched) cohort and PSM cohorts revealed lower adjusted mean eGFRs in TDF (vs. ETV) patients (all p < 0.01) during 10 years of follow-up. Among PSM eGFR ≥ 60 patients, the 5-year cumulative incidences of renal impairment were 42.64% for ETV and 48.03% for TDF (p = 0.0023). In multivariable Cox regression, TDF vs. ETV (adjusted HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.11-1.43) was associated with higher risk of worsening renal function. CONCLUSION: Over the 10-year study follow-up, compared to ETV, TDF was associated with a lower mean eGFR and higher incidence of renal impairment.

On-treatment gamma-glutamyl transferase predicts the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) has been predictive of chronic hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. Its role in the risk of HCC in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues (NAs) is elusive. METHODS: A total of 2172 CHB patients from East Asia were randomized into development and validation groups in a 1:2 ratio. Serum GGT levels before and 6 months (M6) after initiating NAs and the potential risk factors were measured. The primary endpoint was HCC development 12 months after NA initiation. RESULTS: The annual incidence of HCC was 1.4/100 person-years in a follow-up period of 11 370.7 person-years. The strongest factor associated with HCC development was high M6-GGT levels (>25 U/L; hazard ratio [HR]/95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31/2.02-5.42, P < .001), followed by cirrhosis (HR/CI: 2.06/1.39-3.06, P < .001), male sex (HR/CI: 2.01/1.29-3.13, P = .002) and age (HR/CI: 1.05/1.03-1.17, P < .001). Among cirrhotic patients, the incidence of HCC did not differ between those with high or low M6-GGT levels (P = .09). In contrast, among non-cirrhotic patients, the incidence of HCC was significantly higher for those with M6-GGT level >25 U/L than for their counterparts (P < .001). Cox regression analysis revealed that the strongest factor associated with HCC development in non-cirrhotic patients was high M6-GGT levels (HR/CI: 5.05/2.52-10.16, P < .001), followed by age (HR/CI: 1.07/1.04-1.09, P < .001). Non-cirrhotic elderly patients with high M6-GGT levels had a similarly high HCC risk as cirrhotic patients did (P = .29). CONCLUSIONS: On-treatment serum GGT levels strongly predicted HCC development in CHB patients, particularly non-cirrhotic patients, treated with NAs.

An artificial intelligence model to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several models have recently been developed to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Our aims were to develop and validate an artificial intelligence-assisted prediction model of HCC risk. METHODS: Using a gradient-boosting machine (GBM) algorithm, a model was developed using 6,051 patients with CHB who received entecavir or tenofovir therapy from 4 hospitals in Korea. Two external validation cohorts were independently established: Korean (5,817 patients from 14 Korean centers) and Caucasian (1,640 from 11 Western centers) PAGE-B cohorts. The primary outcome was HCC development. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort and the 2 validation cohorts, cirrhosis was present in 26.9%-50.2% of patients at baseline. A model using 10 parameters at baseline was derived and showed good predictive performance (c-index 0.79). This model showed significantly better discrimination than previous models (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, REACH-B, and CU-HCC) in both the Korean (c-index 0.79 vs. 0.64-0.74; all p <0.001) and Caucasian validation cohorts (c-index 0.81 vs. 0.57-0.79; all p <0.05 except modified PAGE-B, p = 0.42). A calibration plot showed a satisfactory calibration function. When the patients were grouped into 4 risk groups, the minimal-risk group (11.2% of the Korean cohort and 8.8% of the Caucasian cohort) had a less than 0.5% risk of HCC during 8 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This GBM-based model provides the best predictive power for HCC risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with CHB treated with entecavir or tenofovir. LAY SUMMARY: Risk scores have been developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We developed and validated a new risk prediction model using machine learning algorithms in 13,508 antiviral-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. Our new model, based on 10 common baseline characteristics, demonstrated superior performance in risk stratification compared with previous risk scores. This model also identified a group of patients at minimal risk of developing HCC, who could be indicated for less intensive HCC surveillance.

Progression Rates by Age, Sex, Treatment, and Disease Activity by AASLD and EASL Criteria: Data for Precision Medicine.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antiviral treatment criteria are based on disease progression risk, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance recommendations for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) without cirrhosis is based on an annual incidence threshold of 0.2%. However, accurate and precise disease progression estimate data are limited. Thus, we aimed to determine rates of cirrhosis and HCC development stratified by age, sex, treatment status, and disease activity based on the 2018 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases and 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines. METHODS: We analyzed 18,338 patients (8914 treated, 9424 untreated) from 6 centers from the United States and 27 centers from Asia-Pacific countries. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate annual progression rates to cirrhosis or HCC in person-years. RESULTS: The cohort was 63% male, with a mean age of 46.19 years, with baseline cirrhosis of 14.3% and median follow up of 9.60 years. By American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases criteria, depending on age, sex, and disease activity, annual incidence rates ranged from 0.07% to 3.94% for cirrhosis, from 0.04% to 2.19% for HCC in patients without cirrhosis, and from 0.40% to 8.83% for HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Several subgroups of patients without cirrhosis including males younger than 40 years of age and females younger than 50 years of age had annual HCC risk near or exceeding 0.2%. Similar results were found using European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria. CONCLUSION: There is great variability in CHB disease progression rates even among "lower-risk" populations. Future CHB modeling studies, public health planning, and HCC surveillance recommendation should be based on more precise disease progression rates based on sex, age, and disease activity, plus treatment status.

Liver Fibrosis in Asians With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This study aimed to evaluate risk factors associated with liver fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 967 Korean patients with MAFLD involved a cohort from a health screening program during the years 2015-2018. The patients were classified into 4 MAFLD subgroups: group 1 (overweight). group 2 (obese), group 3 (lean/normal weight with metabolic abnormalities), and group 4 (diabetes). Liver fibrosis was assessed based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) value using 2-dimensional real-time magnetic resonance elastography. We investigated differences in liver fibrosis according to MAFLD subgroup classification and determined the risk factors for significant fibrosis. RESULTS: The mean age was 50.8 years, and 869 (90%) patients were male. The mean value of LSM in magnetic resonance elastography was 2.48 ± 0.47 kPa. Significant fibrosis (LSM ≥2.97 kPa) was observed in 66 (6.8%) of 967 patients. The proportion of significant fibrosis in MAFLD group 1, group 2, group 3, and group 4 was 1.3%, 5.5%, 6.4%, and 18.9%, respectively (P < .001). Multivariable analysis indicated that the risk factors for significant fibrosis were serum ferritin ≥300 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR], 1.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-3.49; P = .023), Fibrosis-4 ≥1.3 (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.68-5.24; P < .001), homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance ≥2.0 (OR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.25-5.43; P = .011), metabolic syndrome (OR, 2.53; 95% CI, 1.31-4.88; P = .006), and MAFLD group 4 (OR, 6.93; 95% CI, 1.96-24.51; P = .003). However, the etiology of liver disease was not statistically associated with liver fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Liver fibrosis in patients with MAFLD varies according to subgroup classification based on diabetes, body mass index, and metabolic risk factors.

Impact of HBeAg on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk During Oral Antiviral Treatment in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antiviral treatment from hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive status may attenuate the integration of hepatitis B virus DNA into the host genome causing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the impact of HBeAg status at the onset of antiviral treatment on the risk of HCC. METHODS: The incidence of HCC was evaluated in Korean patients with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir in either HBeAg-positive or HBeAg-negative phase. The results in the Korean cohort were validated in a Caucasian PAGE-B cohort. RESULTS: A total of 9143 Korean patients (mean age, 49.2 years) were included: 49.1% were HBeAg-positive and 49.2% had cirrhosis. During follow-up (median, 5.1 years), 916 patients (10.0%) developed HCC. Baseline HBeAg positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. However, in the non-cirrhotic subcohort, HBeAg positivity was independently associated with a lower risk of HCC in multivariable (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.66), propensity score-matching (aHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.76), and inverse probability weighting analyses (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70). In the Caucasian cohort (n = 719; mean age, 51.8 years; HBeAg-positive, 20.3%; cirrhosis, 34.8%), HBeAg-positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC either in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. In the non-cirrhotic subcohort, none of the HBeAg-positive group developed HCC, although the difference failed to reach statistical significance (aHR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.00-1.67). CONCLUSIONS: This multinational cohort study implies that HBeAg positivity at the onset of antiviral treatment seems to be an independent factor associated with a lower risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis, but not in those with cirrhosis.

Liver fibrosis scores and risk of liver-related mortality in young adults with chronic hepatitis B: A cohort study.

The predictive role of noninvasive liver fibrosis scores on liver-related mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis B below 40 years of age remains unclarified. We examined the association of liver fibrosis scores with liver-related mortality in young (<40 years) and older adults with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. A cohort study was performed in 21,360 HBsAg-positive Korean adults without liver cirrhosis or liver cancer at baseline who were followed up for up to 18 years. The liver fibrosis scores were determined using the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) and aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index (APRI). Patients' vital status and cause of death were ascertained through the National Death Records. During a median follow-up of 10.2 years, 283 liver-related deaths were identified (liver-related mortality, 127.4/105 person-years). The liver fibrosis scores were significantly associated with increased risks of liver-related mortality; this association did not differ by age group (<40 vs. ≥40 years). The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for liver-related mortality comparing intermediate and high to low FIB-4 scores were 4.23 (1.99-9.00), and 15.16 (5.18-44.38), respectively, among individuals under 40, and 4.46 (3.03-6.56) and 22.47 (15.11-33.41), respectively, among older individuals. These associations were similar in analyses using APRI. In this cohort of HBsAg-positive individuals, the liver fibrosis scores were associated with increased risks of liver-related mortality in young and older adults. The liver fibrosis scores have a role in predicting liver mortality, even in young adults with HBV.